RE: [FTFB] "Needle" fighters?

>>Jared E Noble wrote:
[snip]
>The squadron gives up it's normal attack and instead:
>- Declare the intended trench run (but not it's target)
>- Resolve PDS
>- Nominate the target system
>- Roll a die and compare it to squadron strength
>  (Turkey groups count as 1 less, Groups with ace as 1 more)
>  -- If above squadron strength, nothing happens.
>  -- If equal to squadron strength target system damaged.
>  -- If below to squadron strength target system destroyed.
 
So the probabilities for various squadron sizes would be:
 
   Remaining
   Fighters	  % no effect	 % damaged	% destroyed
   ---------	  ---------	 ---------	-----------
      6+ace	      0%	     0% 	    100%
      6 	      0%	    16.7%	     83.3%
      5 	     16.7%	    16.7%	     66.7%
      4 	     33.3%	    16.7%	     50%
      3 	     50%	    16.7%	     33.3%
      2 	     66.7%	    16.7%	     16.7%
      1 	     83.3%	    16.7%	      0%
 
So there's always a 1/6 chance of damaging a system, but the
chance of destroying one covers the full range.
If this turns out to be too powerful (i.e., too many "destroyed"
results),the damage rules could be changed to
  -- If above squadron strength, nothing happens.
  -- If equal to or below squadron strength, target system damaged.
  -- If below half the squadron strength, target system destroyed.
This would give the following probabilities:
 
   Remaining
   Fighters	  % no effect	 % damaged	% destroyed
   ---------	  ---------	 ---------	-----------
      6+ace	      0%	    50% 	     50%
      6 	      0%	    50% 	     50%
      5 	     16.7%	    50% 	     33.3%
      4 	     33.3%	    33.3%	     33.3%
      3 	     50%	    33.3%	     16.7%
      2 	     66.7%	    16.7%	     16.7%
      1 	     83.3%	    16.7%	      0%
 
So the chance of destroying a system outright never exceeds 50%, but
the chance of damaging a system varies from 1/6 to 100%, instead
of being a constant 1/6.
   There would still be an advantage for an ace squadron with
these probabilities, in that the probabilities of damaging or
destroying a system remain higher as the squadron strength
drops (through unfortunate encounters with PDS).
   Note that I did not round the 1/2 values; half a squadron strength
of 3 is 1.5, so "below 1/2 squadron size" is 1, or 16.7%, but "equal
to or below squadron size" includes 3, 2, or 1; exclude 1, since that's
a "destroyed" result, and you get 2/6, or 33.3%.
 
This second distribution appeals to me more than the first, but I
have no idea how either one would work in play. Definitely needs
some playtest.
 
- Sam

________________________________________
Samuel Reynolds
http://www.primenet.com/~reynol
reynol@primenet.com
samuel_reynolds@csgsystems.com