Re: [FT][SG][DS] Canada, the US Civil War II, and the structure

Adrian spake thusly upon matters weighty: 

errr.... I don't think so! I'll address some thoughts on the matter 
to your ideas below. You Torontonians really do live in another 
world... (grin). 

> >> But what would we (Canada) really stand to gain by subsuming our 
> >> nation into a giant version of the UK, run (at least initially) by
and 
> >> for London?  I'm sure it wouldn't have happened that way.	

Probably we wanted to bail out the States because they represent 75% 
of our trade and with their economy in ruins, ours would be too. But 
we didn't have the HP to do it. And rather than being benevolent, 
the Brits acted pragmatically - because they got a chance to re-annex 
the US and its resources and personel base but similarly they asked a 
price of Canada to help them out in helping out their neighbour. This 
semi-cynical view seems more in line with the GZGverse. What do we 
have to gain? Getting our #1 trade and defence partner back on its 
feet, and in the meanwhile having a strong friend defend us from 
other predators - and we have a lot in common historically with them 
anyway. Maybe we're so sick of our own politicians and their feeble 
attempts at dealing with Quebec that the Crown seems like strength 
and stability in perilous times. 

> Early next century, the Quebecois vote for seccession from Canada in a
> referendum. The Canadian Supreme Court has ruled that following a vote
for
> independence, Canada is legally and morally bound to negotiate in good
> faith with Quebec.  Quebec and Canada, after two years of careful and
> sometimes heated discussions, agree upon a division whereby Quebec
gains
> nominal independence,

As a corollary of that, the Mohawks and other Native People 
immediately vote to secede from Quebec and rejoin either Canada or
Nunavut or to form separate enclaves (depending on the group). Canada
deems their basic right to do so inalienable, whereas Quebec views
itself as indivisible and rejects the validity of these claims. At
first, protests break out, then an ongoing geurilla war backed (it is
thought) by US Native Peoples and by Canadian sympathizers. 

 but retains the Canadian dollar as its currency,
> enacts a national defense agreement with Canada,

** No, due to the conflicts brewing up with the Natives. AND Canada's 
defence establishment being stretched too thin and Quebec's desire to 
(like any nation) have its own army. 

 and guarentees free
> passage to Canadians through Quebec territory, primarily so that the
> Maritime provinces are not completely cut off.

** I'll buy this one. Although Quebec lets you hold only one 
passport, unlike many other areas if I understand things. 

  The markets both
> internationally and within Canada react at first with great
trepidation,
> and the Canadian dollar drops to an all-time low of $0.50 US on the
world
> market, 

That's hopeful. More likely $0.40 or lower. 

causing the beginnings of a recession in both Canada and Quebec.
> Both nations move quickly to prevent economic meltdown, and issue a
joint
> declaration emphasizing the political stability of the new situation. 

I believe both would like to do this, but I suspect the Markets would 
be skeptical and growing problems with Native populations would 
exacerbate it. I further suspect, from US comments, they wouldn't be 
happy about this fragmentation or the potential for collapse. 

 The
> US, Canada, Mexico and the newly independant Quebec enter into
discussions
> aimed at bringing Quebec formally into the North American Free Trade
> Agreement.  There is some resistance in the US Congress, but president
Gore
> and the Democratic majority in both houses, riding high on their
massive
> landslide victory following widespread public protests at the
> Republican-engineered impeachment of popular former President Clinton,
> passes the proposed amendments to NAFTA without much trouble.  

I don't believe that. I don't think Clinton will be impeached, but I 
think he'll leave under the taint of a Censure from a last minute 
deal, and I think we'll have Republicans in office again. I think if 
you think people will vote for Al Gore, you are smoking more cheap 
narcotics than Al seems to be....
 
> France tries to influence the EU to put pressure on Canada through
tariffs
> and import restrictions, but Britain and Germany block these measures,
> having seen the results of seccession-turned-bad throughout the Balkan
> states.  The British Foreign Secretary states that "We can not allow
France
> to be the cause of conflict among two of our most valued allies.  The
> peoples of both Canada and Quebec have paid in blood for the freedoms
we
> enjoy in Europe today, and we can do nothing less than give them our
full
> support as they resolve their differences peacefully.  The EU cannot
be
> allowed to become a platform for France to advance its agenda of
promoting
> Francophone culture, particularly at the expense of the peace and
stability
> of our closest friends."

Britain's influence in EU matters is questionable given its 
tendencies to remain aloof and buck EU trends. Germany tends to be 
occupied with the situations of its neighbourhood, and they aren't 
likely to calm down. I don't see this set of events as likely. 
 
> The economic situation in Canada and Quebec stabilizes, particularly
after
> a mutually satisfactory division of the national debt is realized, and
the
> Canadian dollar begins a climb...

This might be the end result, but I believe you'll have Civil War 
between Quebec and the Indians and a few nasty incidents or 
attrocities could well drag Canada into it. The odds of this whole 
thing ever being resolved in our lifetimes is low, and the odds of 
the Natives and other folks who don't like the agreed upon resolution 
(if one can be reached) getting upset and doing something about it is 
moderate. I think this is unlikely and a very popular but unlikely 
Canadian fantasy. 

Much more likely, especially given the Quebec election results, 
where Jean Charest won more votes than Mr. Turncoat Bouchard, 
is that Bouchard will not hold a referendum (he won't hold one unless 
he can win and I think the election showed he won't today), Quebec 
will continue to whinge and complain (with some justice) about the 
state of things while no one in English or French Canada will take 
the steps required to decisively end the situation one wy or the 
other due to the risks of political suicide. Likely our Grandchildren 
will be dealing with, and the drag this places on all our economies 
will merely slow Canadian growth and palsy our future prospects. 

Resolution of this issue is almost more science fiction-ish than any 
of the PSBs I've heard this month.
 
> >Additionally, the breakup casts the entire Canadian union into doubt.

> >Relations between Quebec and the U.S. also quickly sour, with Quebec
> >periodically disrupting trade along the St. Lawrence Seaway over
various
> >real and imagined slights.

Quebec has, strangely, a better relationship with the US than with 
the rest of Canada much of the time. Why this is has to do with the 
vigourous Quebec business community who share a lot of commonality 
with US counterparts. Even if the US Gov't says it won't be happy 
about an independent Quebec, they've agreed to stay out of Canadian 
matters and will have to come to terms with Quebec, and Quebec will 
make it easy because they want to establish independent economy to 
remove dependence on English Canada. It's strange, but it seems to be 
the way things are heading if you take a close look.
 
> Relations between Quebec and the US stabilize after Quebec joins
NAFTA, and
> the US welcomes the newly created Quebec Air Force into NORAD (the
North
> American Aerospace Defence organization).

If we can reach a peaceful solution, or a stable one at any rate, 
without getting the UN involved due to seccession wars with the 
Indians and Innuit, and a few die hard Ontarians who are ready to go 
down and lay burning tires on the bridges at the drop of a hat (I 
know some...), this makes sense. Something tells me it would take a 
long way to reach this state. 

> >The Maritime Provinces (which have already petitioned for U.S.
> >annexation several times, finally get their way (the U.S. wants to be
> >able to put pressure on Quebec from both sides, and decides the
> >additional economic burden will be worth it).

Unlikely. California, New York, Texas, and a few other rich high pop 
states run Congress. They would as soon dilute their power as 
amputate their noses. From their perspective, what does putting 
pressure on Quebec do for them? They don't care (as they aren't 
dependent on the St. Laurence for trade and they don't really care 
for the Northern low pop states anyway) and they don't kowtow to 
interests of the National Government. They represent their 
constituents and maintain their own autocratic power base. 

  Amid the wrangling over
> >whose fault the continueing breakup is, the Plains provinces follow
> >suit, leaving a sort of rump Canada composed of Ontario and the
> >Northwest provinces which is no longer even geographically
contiguous.

Now the praries could join the US. But they'd probably just form an 
independent area composed of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and 
maybe if they weren't too looney, BC. 

> When certain groups in the Maritime provinces suggest that they be
annexed
> by the US, clearer sense prevailed.  The US government had no desire
to be
> saddled with a large, sparsely populated and economically depressed
area,
> and though sympathetic to the problems Canada was now facing, would
not
> agree to annexation.

That's more like it. 

  The Canadian federal government had no interest in
> seeing more of the country lost, and in a rare moment of
provincial-federal
> cooperation, a compromise plan was worked out.  The four Maritime
provinces
> would be joined into one large region, with a single government
structure
> based in Halifax.  This would eliminate much of the inefficient
duplication
> of services in the small provinces, and subsequent cost savings.

Doesn't solve the shortage of resources due to poor luck and 
depletion and therefore the employment shortage which is their real 
problem though. 

  The area
> was seeing an increase in its economy through an influx of high
technology
> firms taking advantage of the low costs of doing business and well
educated
> workforce (a-la Ireland).

There is something being done here, but when they compete with the 
likes of Calgary, Manitoba, or Vancouver, that's a tough sell. 

  A consortium of major shipping companies in the
> US and Canada awarded the contract to build the new central East Coast
> shipping complex in Halifax - since Halifax has the only good major
deep
> water protected harbour North of Florida.  This becomes the central
> shipping hub for all of the North East, 

Hmmm. There must be somebody on the US Eastern seaboard who'd 
challenge this assertion. 

and the subsequent influx of
> economic development has side benefits for the entire maritime region.

> >After a few more years, Ontario, its economy battered from isolation,
> >finally gives in and joins the United States, leaving only BC, and
the
> >orphan NW Territories as 'Canada'.
> >
> 
> After a few more years, the economic situation in Canada has
stabilized,
> relations between the provinces and the Federal government have become
> easier in the wake of the shakeup that resulted from Quebec's
separation,
> and the joint economic agreements with Quebec seem to be working well.

Maybe at some point, maybe with UN help, the situation with the 
natives and Gaspe dwellers in Quebec would have been dealt with and 
stability returned. But you'd have a Canada composed of two small 
territories, the prairies, BC, Ontario, and the Maritimes. You'd have 
Nunavut occupying areas in the old NWT and Yukon, areas of Northern 
Ontario, and Northern Quebec. You'd have the Gaspe probably joining 
the Maritimes. Once all this was settled, and the Mohawks and such 
given self gov't, then maybe you'd have a stable situation. 
 
> >Tensions between the newly-enlarged U.S. and Quebec continue, now
being
> >extended to France and the French-aligned members of the EU. 
Meanwhile,
> >regional differences in the U.S. are exacerbated by the ongoing
> >linguistic and cultural Balkanization of the south and southwest
regions
> >of the U.S.	The influx of former Canadians, with first-hand
experience
> >of what too much multi-culturism can lead to, support a backlash
which
> >reverses decades of bilingual policies.

I doubt it. We've clung to this albatross for a long time. 

  The Official Language Act
> >(making American-English the sole language of the land) is finally
> >passed.  Unfortunately, this attempt at unifying policies is worse
than
> >too late.
> >
> 
> Tensions between the US and its North American partners increase as
> regional differences and cultural Balkanization of the south and
southwest
> regions leads to widespread public unrest and eventually violent
conflict.
> Conservative religious movements in much of the central and south-east
> areas add to the destabilizing forces with strong anti-Hispanic,
> anti-Immigrant, anti-Catholic, anti-Liberal sentiment - leading to the
> enactment of State statutes in several areas directly violating
Federal
> law. 

And perhaps secessionist movement from some States. 

 Canada and the other North American states watch as the US devolves
> into civil war.  Mediation efforts by Canadian diplomats, experienced
with
> the successful integration of multi-cultural policies

When? Are you living in the same debt-ridden troubled country I am? 
Or does living so far from Quebec and Ottawa give you a special 
distance to view this from? Or has the glow from Toronto obscured the 
darker truths? (I'm only poking fun, but the questions are real). 

 in Canada offer to
> help, but are soundly rejected by the US Federal Government - itself
nearly
> frozen in confusion over how to deal with the seemingly uncontrollable
> conflicts. 

That sounds more like us. And a lot of US gov't situations too.
 
> >Thus, when the Second American Civil War rips the continent apart a
few
> >decades later, most of what we now consider Canada was directly
> >involved.  Only the Canadian Northwest (industrialized now thanks to
the
> >influx of Hong Kong capital and its connections with china and Great
> >Britain) is undamaged.

If the civil war affects Seattle, it'll affect Vancouver almost 
automatically.

 The survivors were left with driving need for a
> >unifying cultural and political influence to unite the shattered
> >factions.  At the same time, Great Britain sees an opportunity to get
> >out from under a French and German-dominated EU.  

Britain has that opportunity and largely seems to fight EU policy and 
initiatives. Or have things changed there recently?

> When the Second American Civil War rips the country apart along
> cross-cultural and geographical seams, Canada, Mexico and Quebec
reinforce
> their borders with the US and sit back to watch what happens.

We'd probably kick the UN into intervention or do so ourselves with 
British assistance (and other nations who owe the US)

  The Canadian
> government calls up the entire military reserve, begins a program of
> recruitment to expand the forces on a wide scale, and requests aid
from the
> British and German governments, both of whom have large military
training
> establishments in the Prairie provinces and in Labrador.

Large.... ummm.... well, I guess to a Canadian... I think our 
southern neighbours wouldn't think they were too huge. 

  The German
> government allows its forces to help with resettling the massive
numbers of
> refugees flowing north across the border including policing
resettlement
> camps, but only the British government allows its troops to join the
> Canadians in patrolling the border areas.  

This presumes Europe is stable enough for Germany to spare the force. 
or had you only in mind the German Kampfgruppe in Manitoba?
 
> The Civil War destroys much of the US infrastructure, with several
major
> cities in California and Texas falling to nuclear attack by renegade
Army
> and Airforce Generals allied to the Fundamentalist Christian
Coalition.
> There is a pause around the world in shock at the horrific spectre of
> nuclear war, and the rump government of the US, now controlling only
the
> North-East area but still recognized as the legitimate government by
the
> UN, requests immediate aid in ending the conflict and helping the
> survivors. 

I think they'd have got it beforehand, but maybe not. People are 
stubborn.

 By this time, the British and Canadian governments have
> assembled a large military force in staging areas along the border,

Large relative to the battered survivors in the USA. not really large 
compared to Pre war force formations. 

What about the repatriation of US troops from foreign deployments? 
Almost automatic for Milgov. 

The rest of my feedback will be in another mail. 

 
/************************************************
Thomas Barclay		     
Voice: (613) 831-2018 x 4009
Fax: (613) 831-8255

 "C makes it easy to shoot yourself in the foot.  C++ makes
 it harder, but when you do, it blows away your whole leg."
 -Bjarne Stroustrup
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