Re: [GZG] [OFFICIAL] Question: was Re: [SG3]: What if?

["Richard Bell" <rlbell.nsuid@xxxxxxxxx>]

On Feb 10, 2008 3:59 AM, Samuel Penn <sam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Sunday 10 February 2008 08:36:30 Richard Bell wrote:
> On Feb 8, 2008 1:53 AM, Samuel Penn <sam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > The main advantage here is that UAVs have the potential to be
> > mass produced in a very short space of time. You can go from
> > a small number (and low expense) of UAVs in peacetime, to lots
> > of UAVs simply by throwing money at some factories.
> >
> No, it is nowhere that easy.
>
> The cheapest way to build a small number of UAVs is to not build a factory
> and produce a small number of what could be called preproduction units.  If
> you build the capability to mass produce them, a small number will be
> prohibitively expensive.  An important question is what does the factory do
> between production runs?

It's easier than building lots of manned aircraft, and training the
pilots.

Easier, yes.  However, nearly everything is easier than building manned aircraft.  A UAV is not a simpler aircraft, it is a smaller aircraft.  A UAV with the identical capabilities as a raptor will be very nearly the same size.  Current UAV's are cheaper than manned aircraft, because expectations of what they will be doing are relatively low.

Assuming a major war (which doesn't result in total annihilation of
both sides within 30 minutes), you'll have time and incentive to build
the factories to build the UAVs. UAVs lost in the early stages of
the war don't result in pilot loss, so the old pilots just fly the
newly produced UAVs.

If you lose aircraft, you also have to spend time training up good
pilots. I don't have figures on how long it takes to build a modern
fighter, or how long it takes to train a modern pilot, but I'd be
surprised if the first is longer than the second. Regardless, doing
one rather than both is going to be cheaper.

Unless the number of UAV's flown remains constant, you will be training pilots, anyways.  I accept that  UAV pilots  will not have to learn g-compensation,  but every other aspect of  UAV pilot training that is  easier than  manned aircraft training  is due to  the UAV being less capable (excepting automated landings by net).

Why couldn't your example of how aircraft factories are kept running
in peace time also work with UAV factories?

Adding 20 million dollars to the cost of a $100 million aircraft is easier to swallow than adding $1 million to the price of a $50,000 UAV.  I do not actually know if aircraft plants are kept open this way, but it is why carriers are built at as slow a rate as they are.

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