Re: [GZG] Opposed roll randomness (Was: [SG3]: What if?)

["Allan Goodall" <agoodall@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Feb 1, 2008 7:12 AM, The Sutherlands <nishawn@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Do get the the result of poor troops have to do very well to beat good
> troops who have done very poorly can you just add a modifier to the base
> roll for quality?

Therein lies the issue that Oerjan et al have been saying. That's
entirely the _wrong_ way to look at it.

People are assigning a worth to each roll of the dice on both sides.
One side rolls good while the other side rolls bad, or one side rolls
bad and the other side rolls terrible. It's natural, of course, but
that's not how you should look at it.

You should look at the overall odds of success, period. It's the end
result that you need to worry about it, not the individual dice rolls
that you took to get there.

As Stephen pointed out, there's a 1.3% chance for a Green to beat an
elite. If you had a big chart that said "Green defeating Elite: 1 on a
D100" and a Green unit rolled a 01, we wouldn't be having this
conversation.

-- 
Allan Goodall            http://www.hyperbear.com
agoodall@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
awgoodall@xxxxxxxxx

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