Re: [GZG] [FT] Graser-1s again

[Oerjan Ariander <oerjan.ariander@xxxxxxxxx>]

Hugh Fisher wrote:

>I can't think of any formula to predict how much extra a
>graser-1 should cost because of this, but I'd be satisfied
>with the base cost going from 2 to 3, or the arc costs
>being increased to 2-arc mass 3, 3-arc mass 4, 6-arc mass 5.
>
>Looking through the UNSC beta roster,
>* The Hunter frigate has a pair of 2-arc instead of 3-arc,
>or just one graser-1.
>* The Lawkeeper cutter drops the beam-1
>* The Lake III drops the beam-2
>* The Luna, Sea, and Gaia drops a pair of beam-1s
>
>To me that doesn't seem excessive.

Hugh,  I'm not objecting to the mass increase solution because I find it 
*excessive*; instead I'm objecting because I strongly suspect that it will 
be *insufficient*. I'll try another tack this time; then I too will shut 
up. Here goes:

According to your original description, the problem you have with the G1 is 
that you and your opponents dislike the high likelyhood that a G1-armed 
fleet will score mega-hits (ie., single Graser to-hit dice that spawn 
numerous damage D6s due to the to-hit rerolls) and wipe out key enemy units 
early in the battle.

The average number of Graser mega-hits scored during a battle is directly 
proportional to the number of Graser dice rolled during a game: the fewer 
Graser dice rolled during the battle, the smaller the probability that one 
or more of them will score a mega-hit. (Which is most likely why I haven't 
found G1 mega-hits to be any problem - in the games I've played the G1s 
simply didn't get to fire enough dice to score many mega-hits. In your 
games OTOH they get to fire far more dice, and as a consequence you also 
get far more mega-hits than I do.)

The number of Graser dice rolled during a battle is in turn strongly 
related to the number and types of Grasers mounted on the ships involved in 
the battle - due to the compound-effects etc. it isn't necessarily a 
perfectly linear relationship between number of Graser dice and number of 
Grasers, but the more Grasers are present in the battle the more Graser 
dice will be rolled during the game.

In other words, it is possible to reduce the number of G1 mega-hits by 
reducing the number of G1s in the battle. Now let's look at the above 
changes to the UNSC ships, and count exactly *how much* the number of G1s 
in a UNSC squadron is reduced by the G1 Mass increase:

...one G1 less per Hunter-class frigate (assuming that they remove a G1 
rather than reduce the fire arcs).

That's all. If your UNSC squadron doesn't include any Hunters, it will have 
*exactly the same* number of G1s with *exactly the same* fire arcs after 
the change as it had prior to it. (It'll have slightly fewer standard beam 
batteries, but they don't contribute any of the G1 mega-hits.)

If the number of G1s in the fleet only changes very little or even doesn't 
change at all, how much do you think the number of G1 mega-hits scored will 
decrease in your future battles: much, little, or not at all? Will this 
decrease be sufficient to make the UNSC acceptable to you and your opponents?

I believe that the answer to these two questions will turn out to be 
"little" and "no, not sufficient" respectively, which is why I suggested 
removing the to-hit rerolls instead. Don't take my word for it though - 
play some battles (at least 3-4, to make sure you don't get hit by a single 
statistical outlier) with the above modified UNSC ships and see what 
happens. If it doesn't work out OK, you have the "no reroll" variant to 
fall back on.

There. Now I'll shut up too :-/

Later,

Oerjan

oerjan.ariander@xxxxxxxxx

"Life is like a sewer.
 What you get out of it, depends on what you put into it."
-Hen3ry

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