|
Of course, your gaming group could always be
harbouring a closet telekinetic...
CJ
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, October 26, 2005 2:24
AM
Subject: Re: [GZG] laser classes
sorry men I didn't explain it that well yes the
to 2 class 1 beams did a total of 19 between them in one turn , and
for some reason in our games , it's not unusual to reroll 3 times on the one
die eg, 6.6 and 6, no there not special dice, and one of my gamer's now
works for the Australian department of statistic's and he can never
believe the dice rolling in our games , then he rattles of the chance of that
happening ,but it doesn't work at the casino for some reason.
but since it seem's to be that regular
an event in our games , I'll still be bringing in the rule you
cannot have more rerolls than the class of your beam weapon .
cheer james
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, October 24, 2005 1:32
PM
Subject: Re: [GZG] laser classes
Actually, following from what Roger say, where
you're talking discrete, unrelated, events (eg. the values on 2 dice) that
need to happen for an event to occur, I think you're better off working out
the probability of it not occuring, especially if the possibility of later
events (eg. subsequent dice rolls) is dependant on earlier, and finaly
subtracting the chance of it not happening from 1 to get the chance of it
occuring.
Eg. The odds of rolling 6 on a (perfect) die is
1/6th. The odds of rolling a 6 if you roll 6 dice is not, even
theoretically 1/6th x 6, as that = 1, which is a certainty, and I've
gone more than 6 rolls between 6's, especially when that's what I
needed. The odds of rolling a 6 with 6 dice = 1 - (5/6ths^6) (raised to the
power of 6). This actually comes out as 1-0.335 or .665 or 66%.
I'm fairly sure that's what's need here, but
it's late, I'm knackered and I can't remember the precise details. Is
it
4 or 5 = 1 point, 6 = 2 points and reroll, with
the same results?
Have to say that my stats is only basic, so it
may be beyond me anyway (short of taking the easy way out - writting a piece
of VBA to explore the full possibilities of all the rolls).
CJ
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, October 24, 2005 8:18
PM
Subject: Re: [GZG] laser
classes
No, we are calculating the chance of rolling 19 points of
damage on two dice. To do a statistical analysis on this you have to
account for the cases where one die does not roll up 6s all the way and
you have extra die rolls with the other.
Roger
On 10/24/05, B
Lin <lin@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Still moot, if
Die A is a 3, then it's a miss. We are only calculating the
probability of nine 6's and a 4 or 5. If 50 dice were rolled
previous to this run, but none hit, it doesn't change the calculation of
the 10 rolls that matter (i.e. dice aren't linked).
In addition,
the statement was that he suffered 19 points from 2 class 1 batteries in
one turn, so the assumption was that the two batteries contributed to
the damage, as opposed to one doing 19 and the other none. It
could be that one caused 4 points (2 rolls) and the other 15 points (8
rolls), but the odds calculation doesn't change as long as the
total dice rolled to get that result equals ten.
There is a
minor caveat in this; due to the way the FT rule is written, the 6's
have to come first, then the single point roll, as you only get a
re-roll by rolling a six. So to recreate the actual event you have to
calculate in the order of the 9 6's first then the last die.
Statistically it doesn't matter which order the dice were rolled because
the odds remain the same.
--Binhan
But it could be 11 dice.
3 on die A
6
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4:5 om Die B.
Watch out for extra
permutations.
Roger
If you break down the last
two rolls (the 9th six and a single point hit
(4 or 5) the odds are
still the same whether you roll one die or two.
Example: single
die, chance of a 6 (1 in 6), chance of a 4 or 5 (2 in 6
or 1 in 3)
so chance of rolling a 6 plus a 4 or 5 equals 1 in 18(6 x 3)
or
rolling the other way (4 or 5 first, then a 6)= 1 in 18 (3 x 6).
For
a total of 2 in 18 or 1 in 9.
Rolling two dice - chance of
rolling a combination of a 6 with a 5 or 4
on the other die (11
chances out of 36 have a 6 (11/36) but only 4 of
those have a 4 or 5
in them (4 of 46) final odds = 1 in 9)
6:6
(5:6)(4:6) 3:6 2:6 1:6
(6:5)
5:5 4:5 3:5 2:5 1:5
(6:4)
5:4 4:4 3:4 2:4 1:4
6:3 5:3 4:3 3:3 2:3 1:3
6:2 5:2 4:2 3:2 2:2 1:2
6:1 5:1 4:1 3:1 2:1 1:1
What
the calculation is 9 6's and a 4 or 5 on a single die for a total
of
10 dice. It doesn't matter statistically which die (#1-10) rolls the
non-six, so using ten dice, one die or any number of dice in
between
that add up to ten doesn't matter for the
calculation.
--Binhan
-----Original Message-----
From:
gzg-l-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:gzg-l-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of
McCarthy,
Tom
Sent: Monday, October 24, 2005 11:20 AM
To: gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [GZG]
laser classes
I just meant that two dice lets you have a bad roll
in the mix.
2 dice, for example, let's you roll: 6,6; 6,6; 6,2;
6; 6; 6; 6; 4 or
6,6; 6,6; 6,1; 6; 6; 6; 6; 4 or 6,6; 6,6; 6,4; 6;
6; 6; 6; 1 and still
reach 19.
Of course, if you are firm in
your belief that you are as likely to
reach 19 points of damage with
1 die as you are with multiple dice, then
I really have no argument
to counter that.
> -----Original Message-----
> From:
gzg-l-bounces+tom.mccarthy=xwave.com@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto: gzg-l-bounces+tom.mccarthy=xwave.com@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
]
On
> Behalf Of B Lin
> Sent: Monday, October 24,
2005 1:11 PM
> To: gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE:
[GZG] laser classes
>
> It actually doesn't make any
difference whether you use one die or two
> or ten -
> For
example:
> 1 die - chance to roll a 6 = 1 in 6, chance to roll two
sixes 1 in 36
(1
> in 6 x 1 in 6)
> 2 dice - chance to
roll two sixes, 1 in 36.
>
> You can either roll a single
die ten times or roll ten dice once each
> and the odds are
exactly the same. Remember dice have no memory
and
are
> not linked to each other (in theory) so one die's
result is not
affected
> by the result of a previous roll, a
future roll or neighboring die's
> roll.
>
>
--Binhan
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: gzg-l-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
[mailto:
gzg-l-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of
McCarthy,
> Tom
> Sent: Monday, October 24, 2005 10:48
AM
> To: gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE:
[GZG] laser classes
>
> For 6 to the 9th, I get
10,077,696. That makes the odds of getting
> exactly 19
points on one die to be 1 in 30,233,088 or so. On
two
dice,
> it's more likely, but still pretty unlikely.
>
>
>
_______________________________________________
> Gzg-l mailing list
> Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
>
>
_______________________________________________
>
Gzg-l mailing list
> Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
_______________________________________________
Gzg-l mailing list
Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
_______________________________________________
Gzg-l mailing list
Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
_______________________________________________
Gzg-l
mailing list
Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
_______________________________________________
Gzg-l mailing
list
Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
_______________________________________________
Gzg-l mailing
list
Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
_______________________________________________
Gzg-l mailing
list
Gzg-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.csua.berkeley.edu/mailman/listinfo/gzg-l
|