Re: More future history questions - India

G'day,

> When you say the India is "hemmed in" by geography, this is akin to
saying that the US is "hemmed in" by geography. 
> Chances for landward expansion is, indeed, limited, but India is
perfectly placed to control the Indian (Duh!) Ocean, 
> and it has been quietly developing its Navy. So it is likely to play
an important role from the East Coast of Africa to 
> Indonesia and West Australia. This area includes the Persian Gulf(!)
and the trade routes between East Asia and
>  Europe(!).  

Interestingly the book I had to read this morning posed a couple of
interesting Australian conflict scenarios that would fit with this too.

At present 25+% of Australia exports go out of a port on northwest
Australia in a region with less than 100000 people (and most of them fly
in do their 3 week shift and fly out for a week with the family, rinse
and repeat ad infinitum). There are no military bases covering any of
the 50billion worth of assets we use to supply resources to China who is
now Australia's biggest export partner. So the first scenario was set in
2030 and started with piracy (Malacca and other southeast Asian waters)
seeing Chinese send escorts with their trade ships. Then a protracted
dock workers strike in Australia over pay conditions lasts many months
(they have on the past) and the Chinese escorts "step ashore" in a
midnight raid to ensure that Chinese ships are loaded as Chinese
schedules are far behind and the further delays = too much pain. You
could perhaps swap India for China in this scenario (or get them
involved in the conflict) as AUstralia went form having Japan to China
as a major partner in under 30 years so there is time for India to
swapped in instead.

The second scenario was around the inundation of the Indonesian
archipelago (again about 2030-2050) due to a massive tsunami (though you
could insert climate change driven sea level rise, slat water intrusion
and shifted storm frequency and intensity). The trickle of illegal boat
people becomes a flood and suddenly there are 1000s of people a day
landing along Australia's northwest coast. Having worked up there most
would die with out humanitarian aid as that's VERY inhospitable county,
but some could cling on in enclaves and if they headed northeast instead
(which more of the illegal fisherman are these days) then there is even
more chance of them "making it". Maybe this is the origin of some of OU
vs IC hostilities.

Cheers

Beth