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Re: topic - rewriting (future) history....?

From: <Beth.Fulton@c...>
Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2011 22:57:37 +1100
Subject: Re: topic - rewriting (future) history....?

G'day,

> We predict at our peril and it is well to 
> remember the words of Maceth--"All
> Oracles Lie!"

That depends on how much detail you're after. USing agent based models
we're starting to be able to model some parts of the way history has
played out, especially around how civilisations form and end. Its not in
super details, just the general patterns. On a similar note, around your
other post. For all the crap they copped form economists when they first
released their predictions the Club of Rome got it about right if you go
back and compare what they predicted vs what has actually happened and
on what time frame. So if all you're afer is a rough sketch and not a
fine technical drawing or highly detailed piece of art I reckon you can
do a pretty good job. That "unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics"
raising its ugly head again ;)

Cheers

Beth

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