Re: Discussion topic - rewriting (future) history....?

Hey everybody,

Okay, multiple post time... (8-)

On 21/10/2011 6:55 AM, Tom B wrote:
> There are fewer LGS than their used to be, but in the same respect
their are
> fewer record, CD, and book stores. Do you really think our consumption
of
> music and books has declined?

This one, I've actually seen hard numbers on - sales HAVE declined.
At least, of the 'real' versions compared to their 'digital'
counterparts, which is the main concern here.  Remember, I'm not
talking about gaming as a whole (one only needs to look at the success
of download services like Steam, XBLA, PSN, the various Nintendo shops,
et al), but the segment of miniature gamers in the market, and whether
it's
growing or shrinking.  You can mask a shrinking reader base with growing
revenue.

Now as I said, it's impossible to get hard numbers, so, at this point,
we're
ALL speculating.  But, a lot of people seem to be telling me that, in
an area (hardcore wargames/RPGs/niche gaming) where overall
participation
is down, and overall revenue is down (in the past 10 or 15 years)
the traditional miniature gaming market is the one area bucking the
trend?

> Counterpoints:
> - more miniature manufacturers and variety than I've ever seen before
by a
> far cry (but selling over the Internet)

I addressed this from the 'shift' idea - this is also happening in music
and
writing.  It doesn't mean the market as a whole is larger, it just means
entry costs are lower so more people are fighting for the same slice of
the
pie.  We'd never get the numbers, but, I would be really curious how
many
Jon Tuffley's it would take to equal the sales volume of 1 Games
Workshop.
Or even Spartan Press?

> - major games conventions still seem to operate (if they are well
> managed.... half the problem in this area is mismanagement)

Well, this is something I wanted to actually look at in terms of a
barometer;
the problem is, while I can find overall attendance figures (and
those actually look nice for the gaming industry as a whole), I can't
find any nice historical database with attendance broken down by event
category.  Facts/figures for something like Cold Wars would probably be
more 
indicative though.

Either way, there's also the correlation/causation problem.  When a
bunch
of retail chains in Canada went bankrupt, sales at the others went up. 
Was
it because, all of a sudden, more people were going shopping?  No, it
just meant the survivors attracted more attention.  And you've got the
management factor as well.

> - more rulesets available on the net for free or POD tor as PDF than
I've
> ever seen in times past

That's the boutique effect again - lower costs of entry.  Anybody can
publish
stuff, for free.  There's plenty of news websites and blogs out there;
but
nobody is claiming the newspaper industry is healthy and vibrant because
of
the number of available sources.

> - Plenty of blogs on miniatures gaming out there showing people
playing the
> games and a wider variety of games than in times past
> - more boardgame wargames available now than I've ever seen before
(but
> these are not your AH or SPI games... these have slick looking rules,
> boards, and modern boardgame design)

See above in terms of the boutique effect.

> If I had to presume a change, I would say:
> - miniatures gaming does involve a lot of middle aged folk now, but
many of
> them are bringing their kids up into the mix
> - many of those kids are also from the domain of mobile gaming, of VR
> worlds, and of amazing computer games, so they may (as a concession to
your
> point) find miniatures gaming a bit mundane by that comparison
> - bricks and mortar stores for everything that you can get by mail
order are
> going away, except for in very major (or very boutique-ish) cases

Exactly.  The problem is the stickiness - how many kids are going to
stick
with it, and how much money are they going to spend on a hobby that is
by definition, crazy expensive?  ($10 for a miniature, or $10 for three
packs of 'boosters'?)

> I think there is a lot of gaming going on out there with miniatures. I
can't
> tell how much. I don't think the industry is in any danger of
disappearing
> given the number of people publishing rules and selling miniatures and
the
> number of articles on this stuff on the web. The people are ordering
> directly from suppliers and bricks and mortar stores and local gaming
> activity associated with them are in decline, but the games have also
gone a
> bit more mainstream in exposure and participation.
>
> Every gamer I know with kids is introducing his or her kids to it, so
that
> gives me a lot of optimism.

Remember, I'm not talking about gaming as a whole, just miniature
gaming.
Gaming as a whole may or may not be looking up (depends on what metrics
you use, etc.)	I'm just pointing out that, even if there is an overall
revenue growth trend in miniatures right now, the overall demographics
are
against long term growth.  There's going to be stasis here, or decline,
unless video games and euro-games completely disappear from the market.

 From Mark:
> I understand, Jer, that if you are basing your premises on what's
going on
> immediately around you you would think the industry is evaporating,
but I
> would suggest that you're working with a limited data set. Down here
in
> Maryland, minis gaming is going on pretty strong.

Well, we're just working with the same concept of limited data sets.  :)
Like, does that mean the local miniatures gaming club has tripled in
size
with a whole gaggle of new teenagers ready to take the helm?  Does it
mean
that clubs have stopped the bleeding and they're no longer shrinking in
size?  And what does it mean in terms of the industry as a whole?

That's where I'm happy to admit (and have admitted) that the only way to
know for sure is to see national sales figures, which we'll never get.
We can draw analogies, but they're only analogies.  I've heard the happy
stories too -- but I've heard more stories like what we've got around
here
in Hamilton then stories about growth, continuity, etc.

Jon T wrote:
> All I can add to this is the simple fact that in over 20 years of
> manufacturing and trading, I've never been busier than in the last
> couple of years, and I'm glad to say that it shows no signs of
> slowing down at the moment!  :-)

And I'm glad to hear that.  (8-)

Bob D wrote:
> Sooooooooo lets stop bemoaning the death of our hobby and
> celebrate being participants in a life long joy that has discovered
the
> internet and reinvented itself into a whole new world of electronic
sales
> and the type of service so many manufacturers now provide to make our
hobby
> both vibrant, alive and incredibly satisfying..

To repeat the thought about boutiques and Internet: the fallacy here is
number of outlets and quality of product correlates to size of the
industry.
If costs of entry into a market are low, you are going to get large
numbers
of people involved, and you're going to get some gems, because large
numbers are coming in.	But that doesn't mean the market as a whole is
going to increase.

To draw an analogy, you need to look at the PC gaming market - a
lot more indies, some great stuff, an almost complete switch to
digital delivery, the video game market as a whole has increased in size
by 500% since 2005 (just counting retail), and the PC gaming market
has been in stasis, with signs that gaming is going to continue to shift
to
consoles and mobile devices.  (Actually, there are a lot of parallels,
including considerable discussion over which way the PC Market is going,
from
total doom to "we're going to reclaim the video game crown" -- and
that's in
an industry that is relatively transparent.)

Look, trust me, I'm hoping I'm wrong on this.  But, what hard data is
out
there seems to suggest that glory days of miniature gaming are over, and
it's going to be a niche segment in an industry that is turning more
toward
more 'traditional' boardgames.	I'm not saying miniature gaming is going
to
completely disappear (at least within a timeframe that anybody on this
mailing list considers even remotely important.)  I'm not saying you
can't
get great stuff.  But, in terms of the size of the industry as a whole,
it's reached a maturity, and unless something radical happens, there's
going 
to be a decline as the people leaving the hobby aren't replaced by
people 
coming into the hobby.

That's my opinion, because that's what the data suggests to me.  *shrug*
It doesn't mean gaming is bad.	It just means we're in a niche hobby.

And now, instead of looking up sales and convention attendance figures,
I
really should get back to work.  (8-)

Thanks,
JGH

-- 
** Jerry Han - jhan@warpfish.com - http://www.warpfish.com/jhan -
TBFTGOGGI **
My heart has been worn, but it ain't broke;It may hiccup and cough black
smoke
It may seem old, but it still runs; My love has laces that won't come
undone
					-- Jason Plumb, "Satellite"