RE: [GZG] [FT] Graser-1s again

Tom McCarthy wrote:

> > Weapon: Range band: 	    Shots/turn:
> >		     0-12    12-24   24-36
> > P-torp-1***     31%     46%     23%     0.48
> > K2+-1****	    31%     45%     23%     0.45
>
>Perhaps I'm misreading these statistics (or simply oversimplifying),
but
>don't they suggest that the Kra'vak advanced drives aren't really doing
>that much in terms of keeping the guns on target?

Did you read the notes "***" and "****"? If not, here they are again:

"*** This "Shots/turn" value is inflated by an unfortunate tendency of
NAC 
warships to be destroyed after firing a single P-torp shot (thus earning

them single-battle "Shots/turn" ratings of 0.75 or more). In the few 
battles where NAC P-torp-armed ships survived long enough to fire more
than 
one shot each, they usually only scored around 0.33 shots/turn.

**** This "Shots/turn" value is *not* inflated by early destruction of
the 
weapons involved; and the results from individual battles are much more 
consistent than for the single-arc P-torps - but the *averaged* results
for 
the P-torps and the larger K-guns are remarkably similar, aren't
they..."

IOW, yes, you are oversimplifying quite massively :-/

To elaborate, the P-torp-1 "Shots/turn" for the individual battles come
in 
two very distinct groups:

* either the PT-1 ships survived their first attack run and spent most
of 
the remaining battle trying to line up for a second shot, in which case 
they got a "Shots/turn" value of 0.33 or less, OR

* the PT-1 ships were *destroyed* during their first attack run, usually

because they couldn't break away quickly enough and therefore ended up
at 
point-blank range of the enemy. In these cases the PT-1s' "Shots/turn" 
value was inflated to 0.75 or more, because destroyed weapons were not 
counted when determining how many weapons were out of range or arc in a 
given turn.

Together, these two groups average out to a combined "Shots/turn" value
of 
0.48 - but no single battle features a PT-1 "Shots/turn" value even
close 
to 0.48.

For the single-arc K-guns OTOH the individual "Shots/turn" battles fall 
between 0.4 and 0.5 in nearly all of their battles (including a number
of 
KV-vs-KV inter-clan fights), making an overall average of 0.45; and
since 
the Advanced Drive allowed the KV to break away before getting too close
to 
the enemy the K-guns generally survived to make multiple attack runs per

battle.

IOW, Advanced Drives don't make you any more likely to line up the
*first* 
attack run of the battle than Standard drives do (as long as you're 
prepared to meet the enemy head-on, anyway) - but they make you much
more 
likely to *survive* the first attack run (because they allow you to line

that first attack run up in some *other* way than a head-on charge), and

they also make it very much easier to line up a *second* attack if you 
survive long enough to attempt one.

(If the stats had measured how many turns the different weapons
survived, 
these differences would've become quite visible - but we didn't measure 
this, because such a measurement would've been heavily bias against
those 
weapons that are proportionally more common on small ships than on
larger 
ones (particularly the "human" B1s and B2s in battles using FB1
designs).)

Regards,

Oerjan
oerjan.ariander@telia.com

"Life is like a sewer.
  What you get out of it, depends on what you put into it."
-Hen3ry

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