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Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2005 09:45:20 -0700

Subject: Re: [GZG] laser classes

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On 10/26/05, B Lin <lin@rxkinetix.com> wrote:
> Correct with some minor corrections.
>
> Your case #1 where Die 1 rolls a miss right off the bat is eliminated
> since that would result in a SINGLE beam doing 19 points of damage,
WRONG. Despite the fact that that is a SINGLE beam doing all 19
points of damage, it's STILL one of the possible outcomes of firing
two beams -- one does no damage, and the other does all the damage.
> since you multiply by two (die 1 results and die 2 results) you only
> have 18 cases left. By implication, Case #10 is unlikely since I
don't
> think he would have included the second beam to the total if it only
> provided a single point.
You're fiddling. I'm talking about the exact number of possible
outcomes where rolling the dice for two beams resulted in exactly 19
points of damage. Since one of those beams had to do an odd number of
points, those outcomes have to include 18 by one and 1 by the other.
Again subtract two cases from the total
> leaving 16.
No. There are still 20. Not thast it's ultimately relevant, but
there are 20 possible cases.
>
> Each case has a 1 in 60,466,176 but remember that there are two
> possibilities for scoring a single point (rolling a 4 or 5)
I'm well aware of that. That's why the odds of scoring a single point
are calculated as 1 in 3, not 1 in 6.
so the odds
> are actually 1 in 30,233,088.
Wrong. As I said, I already took into account that EITHER a 4 OR a 5
can result in 1. Read back through my post again.
The cases are additive so with 16 cases
> odds are 16 in 30,233,088 so the final count is 1 in 1,889,568.
Wrong a final time. Remember that when you add, you have to add to
BOTH sides -- so even using your incorrect 30,233,088 16 cases with
odds of 1 in 30,233,088 per case means odds odf 16 in 483,729,408
which comes out to 1 in 30,233,088.
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