Population Models
From: Beth.Fulton@c...
Date: Sun, 8 Sep 2002 23:41:33 +1000
Subject: Population Models
G'day,
I did up some more numbers. These are still rough, but they're a bit
more
polished than the last lot.
Low estimate (space travel is restricted, terraforming is a slow
process,
society suffers from the aging problem and AIDS etc, though I skipped
major
natural disasters, a collapse of the ecosphere due to mismanagement and
a
full on population crunch as I don't think we'd have time/economies left
to
turn to the stars so quickly in that case)
EARTH OFFWORLD TOTAL
ESU 1.1 billion 7 million 1.107 billion
FSE 167 million 4.5 million 171.5 million
NAC 838 million 8 million 846 million
NSL 115 million 8.5 million 123.5 million
UN* 286 million 1.5 million 287.5 million
FCT 25 million 285,000 25.29 million
IC 505 million 300,000 505.3 million
IF 640 million 400,000 640.4 million
JAP 120 million 260,000 120.26 million
KNG 15.5 million 30,000 15.53 million
LLAR Nil 425,000 425,000
NI Nil 180,000 180,000
OU 29 million 225,000 29.23 million
PAU 195 million 304,000 195.3 million
RH 23 million 86,000 23.09 million
SK Nil 194,000 194,000
SWISS 5.2 million 225,000 5.43 million
TOTAL 4.06 billion 32.4 million 4.09 billion
* Read this as = a lot of the rest of humanity for now
Middle estimate (pretty middle of the road on all assumptions)
EARTH OFFWORLD TOTAL
ESU 4.9 billion 2.1 billion 7 billion
FSE 344 million 738 million 1.08 billion
NAC 7.4 billion 2.15 billion 9.55 billion
NSL 378 million 490 million 868 million
UN* 958.5 million 250 million 1.2 billion
FCT 143.3 million 7.2 million 150.5 million
IC 717.5 million 56.7 million 774.2 million
IF 1.02 billion 25.6 million 1.05 billion
JAP 196 million 15 million 211 million
KNG 20.5 million 2.4 million 22.9 million
LLAR Nil 54 million 54 million
NI Nil 15.7 million 15.7 million
OU 40 million 20.4 million 60.4 million
PAU 602.5 million 81.4 million 683.9 million
RH 46.6 million 22.6 million 69.2 million
SK Nil 10.6 million 10.6 million
SWISS 11.1 million 10.9 million 22 million
TOTAL 15.8 billion 6.0 billion 22.8 billion
High estimate (you would have to be able to pack them into ships like
sardines, have fleets on constant turn around to garden planets and
figure
out how to have artificial wombs or multiple births or huge support
system
to get this one done)
EARTH OFFWORLD TOTAL
ESU 9.8 billion 7 billion 16.8 billion
FSE 1.2 billion 4 billion 5.2 billion
NAC 11.05 billion 7.6 billion 18.65 billion
NSL 845 million 4 billion 4.85 billion
UN* 3 billion 875 million 3.88 billion
FCT 419 million 440 million 859 million
IC 1.6 billion 2 billion 3.6 billion
IF 2.4 billion 3 billion 5.4 billion
JAP 430 million 610 million 1.04 billion
KNG 75 million 20 million 95 million
LLAR Nil 348 million 348 million
NI Nil 60 million 60 million
OU 88 million 545 million 633 million
PAU 2.6 billion 568 million 3.17 billion
RH 295 million 275 million 570 million
SK Nil 54 million 54 million
SWISS 132 million 100 million 232 million
TOTAL 33.9 billion 31.5 billion 65.4 billion
As to the question about the inner systems I assumed they were split
between
all of humanity, but weighted towards the larger nations which started
FTL
flights early rather than later.
Cheers
Beth