[FH] IFed politics and history, was Re: [SG] Artillery

--- Laserlight <laserlight@quixnet.net> wrote:

> John said:
> > Actually, given the depths of incompetence
> > demonstrated by Iran and Iraq in the past few
> decades,
> > tougher than _them_ doesn't mean much.
> 
> But they both have a fairly large population.  Iraq

Large and divided.  How many gains do you make in Iraq
just by promising local autonomy for the Southern
Shi'ites and the Kurds?  If you effectively support an
independant Baluchistan, then you've kicked off a
revolt in southern Iran which is going to tie down
more than a few of their troops.

> in particular
> would put up an enthusiastic fight at being taken
> over by Sunni.  And

You mean Iran.	However, the main way that I'm
positing a Saudi ascendant involves a huge 'meeting of
the (tiny, inbred, drooling-rabid) minds' between
Wahabbi and Shi'ite clerics that also inspires an
anti-Baghdad uprising in southern Iraq.  The Saeed are
the offshoots of those Shi'ite who aren't too happy
with the compromise.  Oh, and having "We destroyed
Israel" as a flag to wave (and IMU, reestablishing the
Caliphate from the House of Saud) helps, getting the
frothing-at-the-mouth loonies from all Arab states on
your side.

> the kicker--not only does the Saudi-Egypt alliance
> have to take them
> over, they have to do it fast enough and forcefully
> enough to make the
> rest of the world acquiesce.

Wrong.	It actually takes them in the neighborhood of
2 decades.  Full Thrust main book.  I think, however,
that with Israel out of the picture and with Oil's
importance downgraded by the introduction of
commercial fusion power no one really cares about what
happens in the Middle East enough to work up the
energy to intervene effectively.
 
> > You're assuming a sudden ability to produce junior
> > officers worth something?  It's dubious to me, but
> > your universe is your univere.
> 
> I wouldn't have thought of 150 years as sudden.  If
> you import eg
> US/UK cadre, I'd imagine you could have pretty fair
> troops a lot
> sooner.

You can't import a lot of cadre if you're assuming a
Shi'a/Wahabbi fundamentalist state.  I mean, the whole
premise is "all non-Muslims are evil".	Given the
cultures involved and the history, I don't find it
likely.  YMMV, of course.  You'll also have a world of
difference between, say, some local emir's personal
thugs and the Sultan's personal thugs.	Long-service
troops recruited from Bedouin will be better than
draftees from city Arabs.  There's room for variation,
which is why in my DSII organizations there is a wide
variety of troops, each with their own "elites" and
"commando" forces where the best/most reliable (of
that particular bunch) tend to gravitate.

In the armies of several Gulf States (Kuwait is
particularly notorious in this regard) the enlisted
scum are mercenaries from Pakistan (and formerly
Palestinians, but Kuwait still hasn't forgiven them
for their vocal support of Hussein) while the officers
are all citizens of Kuwait.  The senior officers are
all from the tribe that the royal family comes
from--all the officers in some branches.  This is not
a selection system given to the promotion of
meritorious officers, but one which promotes nepotism
and considerations of tribal and political loyalty. 
This is deeply ingrained into Arabic culture and
unlikely to change.  Especially once the really loony
junior and midgrade officers hold a coup and establish
a Sultanate.  They'll want to be damn sure that no one
else can do the same thing.  Ever.

John

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