Re: A big problem for the next 100 years - energy demands

G'day Tom,

 >20 Billion would be about 4x as many people as we have now. If the 
increase was
 >across the board, that'd put Canada with 120 Million - we could easily
do
 >that. That'd put the USA with around 1.1 Billion or so. That's kinda
getting
 >tight. China and India wouldn't bear thinking about. That pressure of
 >population DENSITY could easily drive exoduses from those parts of the
world

Though on the right conceptual track, as usual its not that simple.
China 
for one will see a large population decrease within the next few decades
as 
the effects of their birth control policy really kicks home (I can't 
remember the exact figures but its something like 60% of their
population 
will be greater than 60 within the next decade or so). Though you're
right 
with India, they may well be in trouble due to their population. Further

much of the first world is already in a reproductive negative state so
an 
across the board increase won't capture who will be the most likely to
be 
feeling the local pressures of increased population size. However it
does 
serve rather well for highlighting issues such as the energy issues you 
outlined.

Take home message: based on 'across the board' ideas you can get an idea
of 
some of the big 'physical' issues that an increased population may
present, 
a more textured distribution of the extra population will bring to light

the more hidden/subtle issues of societal strain, cultural change,
disease 
etc. In the end both of these may (I'd guess) constitute incentives to
ship 
out <now I've just got to figure out if they're a push or a pull right 
Brian? ;)>

Cheers

Beth

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Elizabeth Fulton
c/o CSIRO Division of Marine Research
GPO Box 1538
HOBART
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Phone (03) 6232 5018 International +61 3 6232 5018
Fax 03 6232 5053 International +61 3 6232 5053

email: beth.fulton@marine.csiro.au