Re: Planetary defenses [FT]

On 29 Sep 98, at 20:38, Los wrote:

> David wrote:
> 
> > Guerilla operations are fine IF you are supported by the outside. 
No
> > guerilla war in history has ever won without outside (other nations)
> > help.
> >
> 
> Not true at all.There have been successful internally run guerilla
> movements. One of the most recent examples would be Eritrea. They
fought a
> 30 year struggle against Ethiopia to win their independence with
virtually
> no outside help. Everything theyy got and everything they learned came
> from the enemy. The Ethipoians had a blank check from the Soviets as
far
> as equipment as well as numerous advisors.

This isn't entirely true.
The Eritrian Peoples Liberation Front (EPLF) was supported (and 
alternately opposed) by Sudan, the Arab states (principally Saudi 
and Syria) and the Soviet Union. It's one constant supporter was 
Somalia.
That is not to say that they did not manage to take advantage of a 
totally incompetent Ethiopian military and largely equip themselves 
from that source.
Even so, the EPLF and TPLF both suffered serious defeats that 
marginalised them at times.
The EPLF also notably allied with the TPLF (Tigray Peoples etc 
etc) at times, or at least mounted anti government offensives in 
unison, although in different areas.
Lastly, the final collapse of the Ethiopian regime came when the 
USSR stopped it's backing (which had amounted to about 10 billion 
dollars worth), and it was the TPLF that finally toppled it, while the 
Eritrians were bogged down with besieging army bases in Eritrea. 
The end of the need for Eritrea's fight for independence came when 
the new TPLF backed government did not renew customary 
Ethiopian claims to Eritrea.

Boiling all this down gives the following. If the USSR had kept 
supporting, and the Ethiopian military/government hadn't been so 
incompetent, the EPLF would still be fighting a 30 year old war with 
little to show but the suffering by starvation of it's own people.

This supports the idea that a colony is unlikely to be able to 
continue a guerilla action against an invading power with the 
chance of being particularly successful unless they have backing 
from an outside source, or the invading power massively reduces 
it's commitment or is incompetent.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Richard Slattery	     richard@mgkc.demon.co.uk
The trouble with children is that they are not returnable. 
     Quentin Crisp
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