Re: Colony Growth (Was Re: Realistic Fleet sizes)

On Mon, 22 Sep 1997, Christopher Weuve wrote:

> Assuming a starting population of 50,000, and a net growth rate of 5%
per 
>annum (and assuming my math skills haven't failed me in my old age),
after 100 
>years the population would be 6,575,062.  This assumes no immigration
or 
>emigration.
> 
Using the equation of		   kt
			A = Ao * e

where A = final number
Ao = Starting number
k = growth rate per year
t = time in years

I get 7,420,658 after 100 years starting with 50,000 assuming a net 5%
growth each year (i.e. 5% more people each year after deaths and
emigration and immigration are taken into account)

Now this may not be totally correct since techinically most of the new
population is born and not immigrating in and so should not be counted
as
being capable of repoducing for at least a decade and a half after their
introduction.  Besides a 5% rate is pretty high and normally would occur
if you had people bearing kids as fast as they could.  i can't imagine a
new colony world being able to afford having everybody taking care of
kids
all the time.  A more resonable rate would be 2 - 2.5% growth.	At this
rate the numbers would be 609,124 after 100 years.

Doubling the inital colonization to 100,000 would generate 1,218,249 at
2.5% growth.

I think that a million people per colony for old colonies is not an
unreasonable assumption based on these numbers.

--Binhan