Re: Geopolitics in Jon's Universe

In message <199709041401.JAA14515@bitstream.net> "Alfredo Lorente"
writes:
> Well, I got out FT, which has the Complete (?) Timeline for GZG's 
> universe, and I guess I should have looked at it before posting.  One 
> of the problems of checking your e-mail at work.
> 
> Could any of the British or Northern Ireland subscribers e-mail me 
> PRIVATELY as to for how long has the current situation in NI been in 
> effect?  Please, DON'T MAIL IT TO THE LIST!!!!  I'd hate to start a 
> flame war over this question.  Mind you, I'm not implying we would, 
> I'm saying we could...

I *am* mailing this to the list, because I think a case study of 
this sort of colonialist history has a certain merit amongst the
"future historical" discussions we are having. Bear with me and 
I'll get around to the SF bits eventually.

I am sure that we are perfectly capable of conducting a discussion
on this subject without starting any unpleasentness.

I am not especially well versed in the history of Ireland, so I'll
happily accept correction without taking offense.

AFAIK in the 17th century Britain colonised Ulster with numbers of 
protestant Scots. They became the wealthier, urban population,
tradesmen, "apprentice boys". The descendants of said Scots are 
the "Loyalists".

This form of colonisation is about as old as history. You conquer
a territory. To exploit the territory you need to rapidly expand 
the population, found cities and businesses and promote trade and 
so on. What you don't want to do is populate the cities with the 
local peasents. You need the peasents to exploit as agricultural 
labour (or as miners, factory workers, etc.). So you set up 
colonies, cities, and populate them with loyal colonists.

You probably also end up with a gaping cultural/ethnic/religeous 
divide between town/country and rich/poor that's a ticking time-
bomb. The poor rebel, along ethnic lines, against the rich. Or, if 
communities of colonists get left in other countries then they 
become a perfect ready-made excuse for their parent to re-invade.

Swathes of untamed Eastern Europe were conquered and colonised by 
Germans, leaving city-loads of Germans surrounded by non-Germans.
Places like Danzig (Gdansk), for example. This situation came to a
head mid-20th-century. Somewhere in the Former Soviet Union there
are still German populations from the middle ages. There are also
Greeks from 3,000 years ago around the Black Sea.

The "Bosnians" in Bosnia were, pre-war, largely prosperous urban 
converts to Islam than were protected by the Ottoman Empire and
then by Yugoslavia, and surrounded by Serbs. No Turks, no 
Yugoslavia -> ethnic conflict.

So back to N.I. and we see a fairly clear disparity in wealth
between the Protesent-Scots-Irish and the Catholic-Irish. If there
wasn't such a disparity, I doubt there'd be trouble. Rich 
communities do not rebel.

So on to SF future histories and SF... it seems fairly trivial to
churn out points of conflict in the myriad colonies of human 
space.

So the NAC find a useful planet, call it New Needham, and turn it
over to the New Needham Corporation to develop. Who do you think
gets to be the agricultural peons? the urban plebs? New Yorkers?
Englishmen? Nope, Brazilians and Columbians from conquered Latin
America, duped out of the Barrios and exploited. The wealthy
classes come from English-speaking countries... so naturally 
there's going to be ethnic trouble, freedom-fighters etc. The
other major powers will fall over themselves to arm the rebels, to
piss off the NAC. The LLAC will be drawn towards thoughts of
conquest^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hliberation. Many scenarios develop.

-- 
David Brewer